I have crunch some numbers to figure out the odds of getting specific Maelstrom weapons.
What I have right now (Please let me know if I missed anything or have wrong info here and I will edit![:smile:]( ":smile:")
)
There is a total of 12 weapons that can come from the holy chest.
Each weapons can drop in 1 of 8 traits. (Training is thankfully excluded from the Maelstrom weapons loot table)
So, in total we have 12x8 = 96 possible weapon combinations dropping in vMA.
Let's crunch some numbers...
What are the odds of getting X weapon with Y trait?
What are the odds of getting X weapon in any trait?
What are the odds of getting a 2H with sharpened trait?
Thankfully, if the weapon you are seeking is a Two-Handed (Battleaxe, Greatsword & Maul), you have 3 times as much chance of getting your holy weapon in 1 run..
And the odds are definitely more interesting than if you are seeking a specific combination such as an Inferno Staff Sharpened.
All in all this is pretty simple math stuff, but it shows how hard it will be to get the holy weapon you are searching.... Especially if you are searching for something very specific such as a Sharpened Inferno staff or a Dagger...
Token system, anyone?
EDIT: I have added the probability of getting what you are searching with number of runs.
The math being this comes from this wonderful thread, by this math guru @Recremen.
What I have right now (Please let me know if I missed anything or have wrong info here and I will edit
)There is a total of 12 weapons that can come from the holy chest.
Weapons
- Bow
- Restoration staff
- Detro Staff / Inferno
- Detro Staff / Ice
- Destro Staff / Lightning
- 2H / Greatsword
- 2H / BattleAxe
- 2H / Maul
- 1H /Dagger
- 1H /Axe
- 1H & Shield / Sword
- 1H & Shield / Mace
Each weapons can drop in 1 of 8 traits. (Training is thankfully excluded from the Maelstrom weapons loot table)
Traits
- Precise
- Sharpened
- Defending
- Nirnhoned
- Powered
- Charge
- Decisive
- Infused
So, in total we have 12x8 = 96 possible weapon combinations dropping in vMA.
Let's crunch some numbers...
What are the odds of getting X weapon with Y trait?
Each run, you have 1/96 (~1.04%) chance to get a specific weapon with a desired trait... but if the more run you accomplish the better the probability of getting the weapon you are seeking gets. As you can see, even with 100 runs down, the chances are good of not getting that Sharpened Inferno staff :
- 1 run: 1.04%
- 5 runs : 5.10%
- 10 runs : 9.94%
- 15 runs : 14.54%
- 20 runs : 18.90%
- 25 runs : 23.03%
- 30 runs : 26.96%
... - 50 runs : 63.02%
... - 100 runs : 64.91%
What are the odds of getting X weapon in any trait?
- 1 run: 8.33%
- 5 runs : 35.28%
- 10 runs : 58.11%
- 15 runs : 72.89%
- 20 runs : 82.45%
- 25 runs : 88.64%
- 30 runs : 92.75%
... - 50 runs : 98.71%
... - 100 runs : 99.98%
What are the odds of getting a 2H with sharpened trait?
- 1 run: 3.125%
- 5 runs : 14.58%
- 10 runs : 27.20%
- 15 runs : 37.89%
- 20 runs : 47.01%
- 25 runs : 54.78%
- 30 runs : 61.42
... - 50 runs : 79.56%
... - 100 runs : 95.82%
Thankfully, if the weapon you are seeking is a Two-Handed (Battleaxe, Greatsword & Maul), you have 3 times as much chance of getting your holy weapon in 1 run..
And the odds are definitely more interesting than if you are seeking a specific combination such as an Inferno Staff Sharpened.
All in all this is pretty simple math stuff, but it shows how hard it will be to get the holy weapon you are searching.... Especially if you are searching for something very specific such as a Sharpened Inferno staff or a Dagger...
Token system, anyone?
EDIT: I have added the probability of getting what you are searching with number of runs.
The math being this comes from this wonderful thread, by this math guru @Recremen.